UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
74%
Poirier
26%
Duffy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
JD
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
16 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Duffy has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Poirier
Duffy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Duffy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
21.7
58.2
Performance Avg
49.0
50
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
Duffy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
8
1
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch0
3Ground2
Poirier
Duffy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Duffy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
8/21 fights
Poirier
Duffy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Poirier
Duffy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
75%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Duffy
Striking6.0 / 3.5Volume4.0 / 3.0Grappling2.2 / 4.6Wrestling1.6 / 3.2Submission1.8 / 5.0Pressure6.6 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Poirier
Strike Zones
Duffy
Poirier
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Duffy
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (70% of attacks) — Duffy absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Duffy targets the head (80% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Duffy
0/0R00/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Duffy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.0W6.8L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.6L2.8L2015-032016-012017-032019-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Duffy · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
James VickRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
W · Dec · R3
Reza MadadiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Mitch ClarkeRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Joe Duffy
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