METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
74%
Poirier
26%
Duffy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Joe Duffy · UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Poirier
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Poirier is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Duffy has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierDuffy
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Poirier
Duffy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Duffy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
21.7
58.2
Performance Avg
49.0
50
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
Duffy
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
8
1
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch0
3Ground2
Poirier
Duffy
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Duffy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
8/21 fights
Poirier
Duffy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Poirier
Duffy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
75%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Duffy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
PoirierDuffy
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedDuffy
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (70% of attacks) — Duffy absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Duffy targets the head (80% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Duffy
0/0R00/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Duffy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Duffy · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
James VickRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
W · Dec · R3
Reza MadadiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Mitch ClarkeRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07