UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Charlotte, USA
27 Jan 2018
Welterweight
VS
75%
Price
25%
Sullivan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Price
Price is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Price has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Price throws more volume but Sullivan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Price's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sullivan has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Price
Sullivan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
73"
36+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Price
Sullivan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.4
16.1
46.0
Performance Avg
38.1
49
Quality of Victory
35
65
Momentum Score
79
Price
Sullivan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
3
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance3
3Clinch1
5Ground10
Price
Sullivan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Price
Sullivan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Price
Sullivan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
79
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Price
Sullivan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Price
Sullivan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
PriceSullivan
Strike Zones
Price
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSullivan
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Price targets the head (79% of attacks) — Sullivan absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Sullivan targets the head (86% of attacks) — Price absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Price
RND
Sullivan
0/0R00/0
Price · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Sullivan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Price · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Sub · R2
Jacobe SmithRating 5.1Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Sullivan · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
Alexander YakovlevRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Dominic WatersRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04