UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
25 Oct 2014
Lightweight
VS
93%
Cabral
7%
Kotani
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cabral
Cabral is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cabral has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.
Kotani has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kotani has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cabral
Kotani
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
66"
43+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cabral
Kotani
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
1.1
38.3
Performance Avg
0.0
37
Quality of Victory
0
30
Momentum Score
0
Cabral
Kotani
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.2
0.6
28%
Strike Accuracy
37%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Cabral
Kotani
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cabral
Kotani
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
40
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/16 fights
Chin rating based on
5/48 fights
Cabral
Kotani
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Cabral
Kotani
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cabral
Kotani
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CabralKotani
Strike Zones
Cabral
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedKotani
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cabral targets the head (75% of attacks) — Kotani absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Kotani targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Cabral absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cabral
RND
Kotani
0/0R00/0
Cabral · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Kotani · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Cabral · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Reza MadadiRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Johnny CaseRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Sub · R2
Naoyuki KotaniRating 5.2Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
David MitchellRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
Kotani · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R2
Yan CabralRating 2.8Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · KO · R2
Norman ParkeRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 75: Champion vs Champion · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Thiago TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04