UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Flyweight
VS
53%
Johnson
47%
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 53% vs at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
47.6
48.4
Performance Avg
42.5
43
Quality of Victory
31
75
Momentum Score
75
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
14
5
Body
3
1
Leg
11
RangeRange
14Distance26
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/26 fights
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
75
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
17%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Johnson
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedAttacking
28 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (63% of attacks) — absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯 targets the head (50% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
· QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
Upcoming
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UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10