METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2013
Middleweight
VS
72%
Samman
28%
Casey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:17
★ Official Result
Josh SammanwinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:17
def. Kevin Casey · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Samman
→
Actual result
Samman wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Samman is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Samman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Samman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Samman's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Casey has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SammanCasey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Samman
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
79"+
Reach
77"
38+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Samman
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
9.0
56.8
Performance Avg
25.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
33
Samman
Casey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
0
12
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
19Clinch2
4Ground0
Samman
Casey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Samman
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
34
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/17 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Samman
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Samman
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Samman
Casey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
SammanCasey
Strike Zones
Samman
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCasey
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Samman targets the body (52% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the body (100% of attacks) — Samman absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Samman
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Samman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Samman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tim BoetschRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Tamdan McCroryRating 4Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Caio MagalhaesRating 5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
W · KO · R2
Eddie GordonRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
W · KO · R2
Kevin CaseyRating 5.2KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · 2013-04
Casey · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Upcoming
Elvis MutapcicDecision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
Upcoming
Antonio Carlos JuniorUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07