METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2013
Middleweight
VS
72%
Samman
28%
Casey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:17
★ Official Result
Josh SammanwinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:17
def. Kevin Casey · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Samman
→
Actual result
Samman wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Samman is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Samman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Risk flags
Samman's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Casey has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SammanCasey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Samman
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
79"+
Reach
77"
38+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Samman
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
9.0
56.8
Performance Avg
25.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
33
Samman
Casey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
8.8
Style: Pressure
0.8
1.2
Style: Volume
8.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
0
12
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
19Clinch2
4Ground0
Samman
Casey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Samman
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
34
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/17 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Samman
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Samman
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Samman
Casey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
SammanCasey
Strike Zones
Samman
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCasey
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Samman targets the body (52% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the body (100% of attacks) — Samman absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Samman
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Samman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
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The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · 2013-04
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L · KO · R2
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