METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
Brasilia, Brazil
24 Sept 2016
Featherweight
VS
70%
Barao
30%
Nover
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PN
CFR 7
★ Official Result
Renan BaraowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Phillipe Nover · UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Barao
→
Actual result
Barao wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Barao is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Barao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nover has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaraoNover
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barao
Nover
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
Nover
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
6.8
59.4
Performance Avg
20.7
64
Quality of Victory
25
0
Momentum Score
0
Barao
Nover
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
8
6
Body
4
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance10
4Clinch4
0Ground1
Barao
Nover
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barao
Nover
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Barao
Nover
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
0
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Barao
Nover
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Nover
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
BaraoNover
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedNover
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (56% of attacks) — Nover absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Nover targets the head (53% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Nover
0/0R00/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Nover · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Nover · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 5.6Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Renan BaraoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Zubaira TukhugovRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Yui Chul NamRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Rob EmersonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02