UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
Brasilia, Brazil
24 Sept 2016
Featherweight
VS
70%
Barao
30%
Nover
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RB
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
34 – 9
5'6"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
PN
Phillipe Nover
"The Filipino Assassin"
11 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"
CFR 7

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barao

Barao is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.

Barao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nover has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Barao
Nover
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
Nover
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
6.8
59.4
Performance Avg
20.7
64
Quality of Victory
25
0
Momentum Score
0
Barao
Nover
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
8
6
Body
4
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance10
4Clinch4
0Ground1
Barao
Nover
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barao
Nover
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Barao
Nover
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
0
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Barao
Nover
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barao
Nover
Striking3.3 / 0.3Volume4.6 / 8.3Grappling3.7 / 2.4Wrestling2.6 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Barao
Strike Zones
Nover
Barao
Attacking
9HEAD6BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Nover
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD6BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (56% of attacks) — Nover absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Nover targets the head (53% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barao
RND
Nover
0/0R00/0

Barao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.1W5.0W4.1L5.5W3.5L6.0L4.5W6.5L5.8L5.5L2.8L5.7L2011-052013-092016-052019-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Nover · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L1.5L5.5L4.5W6.0L5.5L5.6L2008-122010-022015-122017-02
WinLossTrend

Barao · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07

Nover · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Renan BaraoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Zubaira TukhugovRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Yui Chul NamRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Rob EmersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02

News & Media

Renan Barao · Phillipe Nover
← Back to fights