UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Austin, USA
18 Jun 2022
Middleweight
VS
41%
Marquez
59%
Rodrigues
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:18
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
9 – 6
6'2"72" reachOrthodox36 yrs4-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodrigues
This is a genuine toss-up — Marquez at 41% vs Rodrigues at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Marquez throws more volume but Rodrigues connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Marquez's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodrigues has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Marquez
Rodrigues
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+75"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Marquez
Rodrigues
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.8
66.6
43.8
Performance Avg
59.3
48
Quality of Victory
48
46
Momentum Score
100
Marquez
Rodrigues
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
2.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
46
0
Body
3
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance33
0Clinch3
0Ground13
Marquez
Rodrigues
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Marquez
Rodrigues
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
54
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Marquez
Rodrigues
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Marquez
Rodrigues
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
70%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Marquez
Rodrigues
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
MarquezRodrigues
Strike Zones
Marquez
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
49 absorbedRodrigues
Attacking
49 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Marquez targets the head (62% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Rodrigues targets the head (94% of attacks) — Marquez absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Marquez
RND
Rodrigues
0/0R00/0
0/0R30/0
Marquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Rodrigues · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Marquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody BrundageRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Zach ReeseRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Sub · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Rodrigues · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Jared CannonierRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07