UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
Broomfield, USA
14 Feb 2015
Featherweight
VS
76%
Holloway
24%
Miller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
Holloway is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Miller has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holloway
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
69"
Reach
+73"
34+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
17.6
56.8
Performance Avg
49.0
47
Quality of Victory
47
63
Momentum Score
49
Holloway
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
31%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
8
6
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
29Distance8
3Clinch1
1Ground0
Holloway
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
20/32 fights
Holloway
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Holloway
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
80%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
7
11
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Miller
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
HollowayMiller
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedMiller
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (79% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (89% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Miller · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mizuto HirotaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Upcoming
Jim AlersUFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01