★ Championship Bout · Interim Bantamweight
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Calgary, Canada
21 Jul 2012
Interim Bantamweight
VS
57%
Faber
43%
Barao
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Faber
This is a genuine toss-up — Faber at 57% vs Barao at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Barao throws more volume but Faber connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Faber's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barao has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Faber
Barao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+70"
47
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Faber
Barao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
15.7
49.4
Performance Avg
59.4
42
Quality of Victory
64
100
Momentum Score
0
Faber
Barao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
4
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Faber
Barao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Faber
Barao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/46 fights
Chin rating based on
17/43 fights
Faber
Barao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Faber
Barao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
56%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Faber
Barao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
FaberBarao
Strike Zones
Faber
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedBarao
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Faber targets the head (57% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Barao targets the head (86% of attacks) — Faber absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Faber
RND
Barao
0/0R00/0
Faber · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Faber · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Petr YanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Ricky SimonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Dec · R5
Dominick CruzRating 5.5Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07