UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
14 Jan 2012
Middleweight
VS
49%
Belfort
51%
Johnson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
This is a genuine toss-up — Belfort at 49% vs Johnson at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Johnson throws more volume but Belfort connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Belfort's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Belfort
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+78"
49
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Belfort
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.9
23.1
59.2
Performance Avg
60.4
59
Quality of Victory
55
91
Momentum Score
100
Belfort
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
11 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
1Clinch0
11Ground1
Belfort
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Belfort
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
15 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/40 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Belfort
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
100
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Belfort
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
87%
85%
11
KO / TKO Wins
11
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Belfort
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.4
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
1.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
BelfortJohnson
Strike Zones
Belfort
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Belfort targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (75% of attacks) — Belfort absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Belfort
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
Belfort · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Belfort · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Lyoto MachidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4.5Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
Upcoming
Kelvin GastelumUFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · KO · R2
Gegard MousasiRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
Johnson · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Daniel CormierRating 2.1Submission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · KO · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Jimi ManuwaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Daniel CormierRating 2.8Submission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05