UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Anaheim, USA
23 Feb 2013
Heavyweight
VS
40%
Schaub
60%
Johnson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BS
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
10 – 5
6'4"78" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
LJ
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
18 – 10
Knockout Artist2-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox82" reach6'4"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

Johnson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Schaub has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Schaub's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schaub
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
78"
Reach
+82"
43+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schaub
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
23.3
49.2
Performance Avg
56.0
46
Quality of Victory
60
39
Momentum Score
79
Schaub
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
5.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
64%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch3
7Ground3
Schaub
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Schaub
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/28 fights
Schaub
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
79
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Schaub
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Schaub
Johnson
Striking6.1 / 10.0Volume3.8 / 1.0Grappling2.1 / 0.0Wrestling1.5 / 0.0Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Schaub
Strike Zones
Johnson
Schaub
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Johnson
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Schaub targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Schaub absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Schaub
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0

Schaub · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0101.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W6.2L1.5L2009-122010-102012-042014-062014-12
WinLossTrend

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L2012-012012-052012-052013-02
WinLossTrend

Schaub · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Sub · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 5
Submission
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lavar JohnsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · KO · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04

Johnson · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Brendan SchaubRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Stefan StruveRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Pat BarryRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Joey BeltranRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01

News & Media

Brendan Schaub · Lavar Johnson
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