UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Heavyweight
VS
47%
Sakai
53%
Tuivasa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:26
AS
Augusto Sakai
16 – 5
6'3"77" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Tai
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15 – 10
Knockout Artist7-fight slide33 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tuivasa

This is a genuine toss-up — Sakai at 47% vs Tuivasa at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Tuivasa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Tuivasa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sakai's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tuivasa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sakai
Tuivasa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
77"+
Reach
75"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Sakai
Tuivasa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.9
43.2
44.4
Performance Avg
50.4
37
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
20
Sakai
Tuivasa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
10
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance8
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Sakai
Tuivasa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sakai
Tuivasa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
18/25 fights
Sakai
Tuivasa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Sakai
Tuivasa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
88%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sakai
Tuivasa
Striking5.1 / 9.6Volume5.9 / 1.9Grappling1.4 / 0.3Wrestling1.0 / 0.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.6
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.9
Sakai
Strike Zones
Tuivasa
Sakai
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Tuivasa
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sakai targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tuivasa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Tuivasa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sakai absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sakai
RND
Tuivasa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sakai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5W5.2W5.4W4.5W4.0L2.6L3.2L3.3L4.8W2018-092020-052021-122023-02
WinLossTrend

Tuivasa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L5.5L3.3L5.0W5.0W5.0W5.4W6.5W4.5L2.7L4.0L1.9L6.6L6.7L5.5L2017-112019-102022-022024-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Sakai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Serghei SpivacRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R5
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09

Tuivasa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Louie SutherlandRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Sub · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4
Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09

News & Media

Augusto Sakai · Tai Tuivasa
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