UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Middleweight
VS
56%
Kopylov
44%
Ribeiro
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kopylov
This is a genuine toss-up — Kopylov at 56% vs Ribeiro at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ribeiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Kopylov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ribeiro has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
34
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.3
42.8
50.3
Performance Avg
43.0
45
Quality of Victory
55
58
Momentum Score
43
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
48%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
34
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kopylov
Ribeiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
KopylovRibeiro
Strike Zones
Kopylov
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRibeiro
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kopylov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ribeiro absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ribeiro targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Kopylov absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kopylov
RND
Ribeiro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kopylov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Ribeiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Kopylov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Marco TulioRating 5.8Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Cesar AlmeidaRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Ribeiro · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Roman KopylovRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Joseph HolmesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01