UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Welterweight
VS
36%
Oliveira
64%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Oliveira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Brown throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
+78"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
52.9
46.5
Performance Avg
48.7
43
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
92
Oliveira
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
10
1
Body
1
5
Leg
5
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Oliveira
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Oliveira
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
92
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
OliveiraBrown
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedBrown
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (63% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06