METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Jacksonville, USA
16 May 2020
Middleweight
VS
58%
Hernandez
42%
Holland
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:39
★ Official Result
Kevin HollandwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:39
def. Anthony Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hernandez
→
Actual result
Holland wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 58% vs Holland at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holland throws more volume but Hernandez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HernandezHolland
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hernandez
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+81"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.7
47.0
56.2
Performance Avg
49.3
44
Quality of Victory
44
98
Momentum Score
51
Hernandez
Holland
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.2
66%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
9
0
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance4
0Clinch5
0Ground5
Hernandez
Holland
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/18 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Hernandez
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
51
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Hernandez
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
69%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
6
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Holland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
HernandezHolland
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedHolland
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (64% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Sean StricklandRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R4
Roman DolidzeRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · KO · R5
Michel PereiraRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R2
Roman KopylovRating 6.2Submission
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03