UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
New York City, USA
2 Nov 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
57%
Cerminara
43%
Maia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cerminara
This is a genuine toss-up — Cerminara at 57% vs Maia at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerminara throws more volume but Maia connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cerminara's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerminara
Maia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
64"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerminara
Maia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.2
31.2
40.9
Performance Avg
38.6
25
Quality of Victory
31
85
Momentum Score
45
Cerminara
Maia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.7
35%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
8
4
Body
2
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Cerminara
Maia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cerminara
Maia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/24 fights
Chin rating based on
12/31 fights
Cerminara
Maia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cerminara
Maia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
17%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerminara
Maia
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
1.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
CerminaraMaia
Strike Zones
Cerminara
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedMaia
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerminara targets the head (55% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Maia targets the head (62% of attacks) — Cerminara absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerminara
RND
Maia
0/0R00/0
Cerminara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Maia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Cerminara · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 5.7Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Maryna MorozRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 5.8Decision
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