UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Middleweight
VS
46%
Boetsch
54%
Junior
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:28
TB
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21 – 13
6'0"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 17
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
Submission Hunter3-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'2"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Junior

This is a genuine toss-up — Boetsch at 46% vs Junior at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Boetsch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Boetsch's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Boetsch
Junior
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+79"
45
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Boetsch
Junior
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
19.1
46.0
Performance Avg
55.3
43
Quality of Victory
53
69
Momentum Score
41
Boetsch
Junior
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
57%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
23
1
Body
4
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance20
0Clinch2
0Ground9
Boetsch
Junior
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Boetsch
Junior
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/34 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Boetsch
Junior
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
41
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Boetsch
Junior
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
71%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
5
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Boetsch
Junior
Striking6.8 / 1.2Volume4.3 / 3.5Grappling1.0 / 6.4Wrestling0.7 / 4.5Submission0.0 / 7.1Pressure5.6 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Boetsch
Strike Zones
Junior
Boetsch
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD4BODY4LEGS31 absorbed
Junior
Attacking
23HEAD4BODY4LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Boetsch targets the head (57% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Junior targets the head (74% of attacks) — Boetsch absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Boetsch
RND
Junior
0/0R00/0

Boetsch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.3W2.8L1.5L2.9L5.2W5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L5.5L2008-022011-052013-102016-072019-03
WinLossTrend

Junior · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.0L5.5W5.3W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2014-052016-032017-062019-052021-01
WinLossTrend

Boetsch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R2
Johny HendricksRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

Junior · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

News & Media

Tim Boetsch · Antonio Carlos Junior
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