METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Lightweight
VS
56%
Stevenson
44%
Tibau
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:57
★ Official Result
Joe StevensonwinsSubmissionR2 · 2:57
def. Gleison Tibau · UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Stevenson
→
Actual result
Stevenson wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Stevenson at 56% vs Tibau at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Stevenson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Stevenson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StevensonTibau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stevenson
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stevenson
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
15.4
49.2
Performance Avg
43.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
86
Momentum Score
74
Stevenson
Tibau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Stevenson
Tibau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Stevenson
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
74
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Stevenson
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
4
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stevenson
Tibau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
StevensonTibau
Strike Zones
Stevenson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTibau
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stevenson
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Stevenson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Tibau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Stevenson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
Tibau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01