UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Lightweight
VS
56%
Stevenson
44%
Tibau
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:57
JS
Joe Stevenson
"Daddy"
33 – 16
5'7"70" reachOrthodox43 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
Well-Rounded4-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stevenson

This is a genuine toss-up — Stevenson at 56% vs Tibau at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Stevenson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Stevenson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stevenson
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stevenson
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
15.4
49.2
Performance Avg
43.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
86
Momentum Score
74
Stevenson
Tibau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Stevenson
Tibau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Stevenson
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
74
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Stevenson
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
4
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stevenson
Tibau
Striking2.3 / 1.8Volume4.0 / 6.6Grappling3.9 / 3.6Wrestling2.7 / 2.5Submission3.8 / 2.5Pressure5.0 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Stevenson
Strike Zones
Tibau
Stevenson
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Tibau
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stevenson
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Stevenson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L4.2W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L5.2W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5L5.5L2005-112007-042008-112010-022011-06
WinLossTrend

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Stevenson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Joe Stevenson · Gleison Tibau
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