UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Featherweight
VS
23%
Pettis
77%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:49
AP
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24 – 10
5'10"72" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
Pressure Fighter2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

Oliveira is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Pettis throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pettis
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+74"
39
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
63.3
52.6
Performance Avg
58.6
51
Quality of Victory
51
72
Momentum Score
100
Pettis
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Pettis
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Pettis
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Pettis
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
84%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
17
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pettis
Oliveira
Striking3.8 / 3.0Volume4.0 / 2.7Grappling3.8 / 5.8Wrestling2.6 / 4.1Submission3.6 / 6.8Pressure6.1 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Pettis
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Pettis
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pettis
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.1W5.7L5.5L6.0L6.9W3.8L4.9W4.1L6.0W3.3L5.7W5.5L3.8L4.5W4.5W2011-062014-122016-122019-032020-12
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Anthony Pettis · Charles Oliveira
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