UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
Melbourne, Australia
9 Feb 2019
Flyweight
VS
72%
Kara-France
28%
Paiva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kara-France
Kara-France is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kara-France has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kara-France's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kara-France
Paiva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
33
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kara-France
Paiva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.5
20.1
47.5
Performance Avg
38.1
38
Quality of Victory
35
80
Momentum Score
20
Kara-France
Paiva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
37%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
15
9
Body
11
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance25
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Kara-France
Paiva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kara-France
Paiva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/37 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Kara-France
Paiva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Kara-France
Paiva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kara-France
Paiva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Kara-FrancePaiva
Strike Zones
Kara-France
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedPaiva
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kara-France targets the head (52% of attacks) — Paiva absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Paiva targets the head (58% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kara-France
RND
Paiva
0/0R00/0
Kara-France · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Paiva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Kara-France · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4Submission
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W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
Paiva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergey MorozovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R2
Mark De La RosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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