UFC Fight Night 3
Las Vegas, USA
16 Jan 2006
Welterweight
VS
61%
Fisher
39%
Riley
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fisher
Fisher holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Riley has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Fisher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Riley throws more volume but Fisher connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Fisher's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Riley has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Fisher
Riley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
+69"
50
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Fisher
Riley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
11.4
43.8
Performance Avg
28.3
38
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
45
Fisher
Riley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
32%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
2
10
Body
4
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
18Distance1
7Clinch7
0Ground1
Fisher
Riley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fisher
Riley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/33 fights
Chin rating based on
9/44 fights
Fisher
Riley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Fisher
Riley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fisher
Riley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
FisherRiley
Strike Zones
Fisher
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedRiley
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fisher targets the head (52% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Riley targets the body (44% of attacks) — Fisher absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fisher
RND
Riley
0/0R00/0
Fisher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Riley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Fisher · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
L · KO · R2
Thiago TavaresRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Ross PearsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Curt WarburtonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · 2010-06
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08