UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
46%
Menifield
54%
Jacoby
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jacoby
This is a genuine toss-up — Menifield at 46% vs Jacoby at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Jacoby throws more volume but Menifield connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Menifield's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jacoby has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Menifield
Jacoby
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Menifield
Jacoby
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.6
62.1
51.6
Performance Avg
53.8
44
Quality of Victory
48
75
Momentum Score
91
Menifield
Jacoby
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
28
2
Body
5
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance27
10Clinch7
3Ground0
Menifield
Jacoby
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Menifield
Jacoby
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
58
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/23 fights
Chin rating based on
17/31 fights
Menifield
Jacoby
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
91
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Menifield
Jacoby
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
70%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Menifield
Jacoby
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
MenifieldJacoby
Strike Zones
Menifield
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedJacoby
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Menifield targets the head (89% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Jacoby targets the head (82% of attacks) — Menifield absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Menifield
RND
Jacoby
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Menifield · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Jacoby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Menifield · Last 5
Upcoming
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UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12