UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
60%
Carnelossi
40%
Hill
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Carnelossi
Carnelossi holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Hill has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Hill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hill has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Carnelossi
Hill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
61"
Reach
+64"
33+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carnelossi
Hill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.8
36.2
47.1
Performance Avg
36.7
45
Quality of Victory
31
65
Momentum Score
40
Carnelossi
Hill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
14
2
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance14
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Carnelossi
Hill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carnelossi
Hill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
48
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
30/34 fights
Carnelossi
Hill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Carnelossi
Hill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
15%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carnelossi
Hill
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
CarnelossiHill
Strike Zones
Carnelossi
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedHill
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (69% of attacks) — Hill absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Hill targets the head (88% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carnelossi
RND
Hill
0/0R00/0
Carnelossi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Hill · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Carnelossi · Last 5
Upcoming
Ketlen SouzaUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
Hill · Last 5
Upcoming
Xiong JingnanUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Fatima KlineRating 7.1Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen SouzaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08