Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Lightweight

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

22 Oct 2022

Lightweight

46%

Oliveira

54%

Makhachev

Win Probability

Submission

Round 2 · 3:16

Charles Oliveira

"Do Bronxs"

37 – 11

5'10"74" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakPressure Fighter

CFR 63

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

Well-Rounded17-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"

CFR 74

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:16

def. Charles Oliveira · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

Submission · R2

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 46% vs Makhachev at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

OliveiraMakhachev

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Oliveira

Makhachev

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"

Height

5'10"

74"+

Reach

70"

Age

+34

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Oliveira

Makhachev

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

63.3

73.9

58.6

Performance Avg

69.4

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Oliveira

Makhachev

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.0

/ 10

3.6

/ 10

8.0

Style: Pressure

7.1

2.7

Style: Volume

5.0

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

8Distance16

5Clinch2

0Ground0

Oliveira

Makhachev

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.8

/ 10

4.5

/ 10

4.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.1

6.8

Submission Style (/10)

4.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Oliveira

Makhachev

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.2 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

17 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

37/48 fights

Chin rating based on

19/29 fights

Oliveira

Makhachev

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

17-fight 🔥 win streak

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R2

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Oliveira

Makhachev

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

84%

61%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira

Makhachev

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.6

5.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.5

4.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.1

6.8

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.4

8.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.1

2.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.0

Oliveira

Strike Zones

Makhachev

Oliveira

Attacking

13 landed

Absorbing

18 absorbed

Makhachev

Attacking

18 landed

Absorbing

13 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Oliveira targets the body (54% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 54% of strikes there

🎯Makhachev targets the head (89% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira

RND

Makhachev

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Max Holloway

Decision

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · Sub · R2

Mateusz Gamrot

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

L · KO · R1

Ilia Topuria

KO/TKO

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

W · Dec · R5

Michael Chandler

Decision

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

L · Dec · R3

Arman Tsarukyan

Decision

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

News & Media

Charles Oliveira · Islam Makhachev

← Back to fights