★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
22 Oct 2022
Lightweight
VS
46%
Oliveira
54%
Makhachev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:16
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
5'10"74" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakPressure Fighter
CFR 63
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
Well-Rounded16-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 75

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 46% vs Makhachev at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Oliveira throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira
Makhachev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
70"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Makhachev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
74.5
58.6
Performance Avg
69.8
51
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Makhachev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
16
7
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance16
5Clinch2
0Ground0
Oliveira
Makhachev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Makhachev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
16 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
18/29 fights
Oliveira
Makhachev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
16-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Oliveira
Makhachev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
65%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
17
Submission Wins
8
4
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Makhachev
Striking3.0 / 3.6Volume2.7 / 4.7Grappling5.8 / 4.6Wrestling4.1 / 3.2Submission6.8 / 4.7Pressure8.0 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Oliveira
Attacking
6HEAD7BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Makhachev
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD7BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the body (54% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Makhachev targets the head (89% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Makhachev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

News & Media

Charles Oliveira · Islam Makhachev
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