The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
Las Vegas, USA
1 Dec 2017
Middleweight
VS
23%
Spicely
77%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
Meerschaert is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spicely has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spicely's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spicely
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
73"
Reach
+77"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Spicely
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
56.7
43.8
Performance Avg
48.2
54
Quality of Victory
50
52
Momentum Score
91
Spicely
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
10
2
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance13
1Clinch1
0Ground1
Spicely
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spicely
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/18 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Spicely
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
91
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Spicely
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
11
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spicely
Meerschaert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
SpicelyMeerschaert
Strike Zones
Spicely
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedMeerschaert
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spicely targets the head (78% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (67% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spicely
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Spicely · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Spicely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Darren StewartRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · KO · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 2.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R1
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11