UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Bantamweight
VS
91%
McDonald
9%
Soto
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McDonald
McDonald is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
McDonald has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McDonald's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McDonald
Soto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
35+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McDonald
Soto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.0
2.1
53.6
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
McDonald
Soto
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
20%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
6Ground0
McDonald
Soto
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McDonald
Soto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
McDonald
Soto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
McDonald
Soto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McDonald
Soto
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McDonaldSoto
Strike Zones
McDonald
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSoto
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McDonald targets the head (92% of attacks) — Soto absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Soto targets the head (50% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McDonald
RND
Soto
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
McDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Soto · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
McDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori KaneharaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad PickettRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan BaraoRating 3.4Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
Soto · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Michael McDonaldRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11