METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Bantamweight
VS
91%
McDonald
9%
Soto
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:56
MM
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
174
5'9"70" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
AS
Alex Soto
"Extremo"
83
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw5'8"
CFR 2
★ Official Result
Michael McDonaldwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:56
def. Alex Soto · UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McDonald
Actual result
McDonald wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

McDonald is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.

Risk flags

McDonald's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
McDonaldSoto
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
McDonald
Soto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
35+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McDonald
Soto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.0
2.1
53.6
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
McDonald
Soto
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
0.0
4.0
Style: Volume
0.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
6Ground0
McDonald
Soto
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McDonald
Soto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
Strikes absorbed / min
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
McDonald
Soto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
McDonald
Soto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McDonald
Soto
Striking4.7 / 0.0Volume4.0 / 0.0Grappling3.5 / 0.0Wrestling2.4 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McDonald
Strike Zones
Soto
McDonald
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Soto
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McDonald targets the head (92% of attacks) — Soto absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Soto targets the head (50% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McDonald
RND
Soto
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

McDonald · Last 5

L · KO · R1
John Lineker
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori Kanehara
Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah Faber
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad Pickett
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan Barao
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02

Soto · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Francisco Rivera
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Michael McDonald
KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11

News & Media

Michael McDonald · Alex Soto
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