METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Lewis
50%
Pavlovich
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:55
★ Official Result
Sergei PavlovichwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:55
def. Derrick Lewis · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lewis
→
Actual result
Pavlovich wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 50% vs Pavlovich at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Lewis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pavlovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LewisPavlovich
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lewis
Pavlovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"
Reach
+84"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lewis
Pavlovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
59.8
57.5
Performance Avg
60.6
53
Quality of Victory
53
84
Momentum Score
59
Lewis
Pavlovich
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
2.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.9
16 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
15
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Lewis
Pavlovich
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lewis
Pavlovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Lewis
Pavlovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
59
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Lewis
Pavlovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
75%
16
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lewis
Pavlovich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.9
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
LewisPavlovich
Strike Zones
Lewis
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedPavlovich
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lewis
RND
Pavlovich
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lewis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Lewis · Last 5
Upcoming
Josh HokitUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
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