UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Lewis
50%
Pavlovich
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:55
Derrick
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29 – 13
6'3"79" reachOrthodox41 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 59
Sergei
Sergei Pavlovich
20 – 3
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw84" reach6'3"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lewis

This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 50% vs Pavlovich at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Lewis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pavlovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lewis
Pavlovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"
Reach
+84"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lewis
Pavlovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
59.8
57.5
Performance Avg
60.6
53
Quality of Victory
53
84
Momentum Score
59
Lewis
Pavlovich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.9
16 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
15
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Lewis
Pavlovich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lewis
Pavlovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Lewis
Pavlovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
59
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Lewis
Pavlovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
75%
16
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lewis
Pavlovich
Striking9.3 / 8.9Volume2.9 / 3.5Grappling0.5 / 0.6Wrestling0.3 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.5 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.9
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Lewis
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Lewis
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD0BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Pavlovich
Attacking
15HEAD0BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lewis
RND
Pavlovich
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lewis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.2W2.8L5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.4W5.1W3.4L5.9W4.9W6.8W2.1L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W4.5L5.3W3.2L2.7L2.0L5.6W7.3L5.6W6.2W4.3L2014-042016-072019-032022-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Pavlovich · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0101.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.2W5.4W5.9W3.9L6.8L5.6W6.0W2018-112022-032023-042025-022025-08
WinLossTrend

Lewis · Last 5

Upcoming
Josh Hokit
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

Pavlovich · Last 5

Upcoming
Tallison Teixeira
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Derrick Lewis · Sergei Pavlovich
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