Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2

Dallas, USA

30 Jul 2022

Heavyweight

48%

Lewis

52%

Pavlovich

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 0:55

Derrick Lewis

"The Black Beast"

29 – 13

6'3"79" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist

CFR 59

Sergei Pavlovich

20 – 3

Knockout Artist3-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw84" reach6'3"

CFR 64

★ Official Result

Sergei PavlovichwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:55

def. Derrick Lewis · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Pavlovich

→

Actual result

Pavlovich wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 48% vs Pavlovich at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pavlovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

LewisPavlovich

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Lewis

Pavlovich

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"

Height

6'3"

79"

Reach

+84"

Age

+34

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Lewis

Pavlovich

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.7

63.5

56.6

Performance Avg

62.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Lewis

Pavlovich

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.3

/ 10

9.3

/ 10

7.5

Style: Pressure

7.7

2.9

Style: Volume

3.3

16 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

7 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

4Distance14

0Clinch0

0Ground1

Lewis

Pavlovich

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

🥊

Pure striking matchup

Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history

Submission wins

Lewis

Pavlovich

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.1 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

32/42 fights

Chin rating based on

12/23 fights

Lewis

Pavlovich

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 🔥 win streak

L · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R5

Last 5

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Lewis

Pavlovich

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

80%

78%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lewis

Pavlovich

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

9.3

0.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.5

0.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.4

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.7

2.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.3

Lewis

Strike Zones

Pavlovich

Lewis

Attacking

4 landed

Absorbing

15 absorbed

Pavlovich

Attacking

15 landed

Absorbing

4 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Lewis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 50% of strikes there

🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lewis

RND

Pavlovich

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Lewis · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Josh Hokit

KO/TKO

UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06

L · KO · R2

Waldo Cortes Acosta

KO/TKO

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · KO · R1

Tallison Teixeira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07

W · KO · R3

Rodrigo Nascimento

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

L · Dec · R5

Jailton Almeida

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

Pavlovich · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Tallison Teixeira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Volkov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

L · KO · R1

Tom Aspinall

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Derrick Lewis · Sergei Pavlovich

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