UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
19%
Araujo
81%
Strickland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Strickland
Strickland is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Strickland has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Strickland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Strickland has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Araujo
Strickland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
76"
45
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Araujo
Strickland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.2
57.7
35.0
Performance Avg
50.9
25
Quality of Victory
37
50
Momentum Score
100
Araujo
Strickland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
2.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
16
5
Body
0
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Araujo
Strickland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.6
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Araujo
Strickland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/34 fights
Chin rating based on
25/38 fights
Araujo
Strickland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Araujo
Strickland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Araujo
Strickland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
AraujoStrickland
Strike Zones
Araujo
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedStrickland
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Araujo targets the legs (38% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Strickland targets the head (89% of attacks) — Araujo absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Araujo
RND
Strickland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Araujo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Araujo · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
George SullivanRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Danny MitchellRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01