UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Las Vegas, USA
10 Feb 2024
Lightweight
VS
42%
Johnson
58%
Flowers
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Flowers
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 42% vs Flowers at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Flowers has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Johnson throws more volume but Flowers connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson
Flowers
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
39
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Flowers
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
50.7
42.5
Performance Avg
43.0
38
Quality of Victory
55
35
Momentum Score
43
Johnson
Flowers
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
63%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch1
1Ground3
Johnson
Flowers
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Flowers
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Johnson
Flowers
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
43
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Johnson
Flowers
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Flowers
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
JohnsonFlowers
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedFlowers
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Flowers absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Flowers targets the head (83% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Flowers
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Flowers · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Flowers · Last 4
W · KO · R2
Lando VannataRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Evan ElderRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8Submission
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