UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
London, United Kingdom
16 Feb 2013
Lightweight
VS
58%
Sass
42%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PS
Paul Sass
14 – 2
6'0"73" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 24
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sass

This is a genuine toss-up — Sass at 58% vs Castillo at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Sass has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Castillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sass
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sass
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.0
17.2
56.4
Performance Avg
40.6
54
Quality of Victory
34
91
Momentum Score
89
Sass
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.9
29%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Sass
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sass
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/16 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Sass
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Sass
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sass
Castillo
Striking1.2 / 3.9Volume1.2 / 6.7Grappling8.0 / 1.7Wrestling5.6 / 1.2Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Sass
Strike Zones
Castillo
Sass
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Castillo
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sass targets the head (67% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (89% of attacks) — Sass absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sass
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0

Sass · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.1W5.0W1.5L5.5L2010-102011-102012-052012-092013-02
WinLossTrend

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Sass · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Matt WimanRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 5
Submission
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
W · Sub · R1
Michael JohnsonRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
W · Sub · R1
Mark HolstRating 5
Submission
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

News & Media

Paul Sass · Danny Castillo
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