METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
London, United Kingdom
16 Feb 2013
Lightweight
VS
58%
Sass
42%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Danny CastillowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Paul Sass · UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sass
→
Actual result
Castillo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Sass at 58% vs Castillo at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Sass has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Risk flags
Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SassCastillo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sass
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
38+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sass
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.0
17.2
56.4
Performance Avg
40.6
54
Quality of Victory
34
91
Momentum Score
89
Sass
Castillo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
8.8
Style: Pressure
3.5
1.2
Style: Volume
6.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Sass
Castillo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sass
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/16 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Sass
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Sass
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sass
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
SassCastillo
Strike Zones
Sass
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sass targets the head (67% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (89% of attacks) — Sass absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sass
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Sass · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloDecision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Matt WimanSubmission
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannSubmission
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
W · Sub · R1
Michael JohnsonSubmission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
W · Sub · R1
Mark HolstSubmission
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzDecision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerDecision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderKO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonDecision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanKO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04