UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Vancouver, Canada
10 Jun 2023
Middleweight
VS
41%
Barriault
59%
Anders
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Anders
This is a genuine toss-up — Barriault at 41% vs Anders at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Barriault throws more volume but Anders connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barriault's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Anders has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barriault
Anders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barriault
Anders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
50.9
41.9
Performance Avg
45.4
45
Quality of Victory
41
13
Momentum Score
79
Barriault
Anders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
12
12
Body
10
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
37Distance17
4Clinch5
0Ground0
Barriault
Anders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barriault
Anders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Barriault
Anders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
79
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Barriault
Anders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barriault
Anders
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
BarriaultAnders
Strike Zones
Barriault
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedAnders
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barriault targets the head (68% of attacks) — Anders absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Anders targets the head (55% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barriault
RND
Anders
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barriault · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Anders · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Barriault · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
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W · KO · R2
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W · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 4.5Decision
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UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06