UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Blachowicz
43%
Rockhold
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blachowicz
This is a genuine toss-up — Blachowicz at 57% vs Rockhold at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rockhold has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Rockhold has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rockhold has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
78"+
Reach
77"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
35.5
53.0
Performance Avg
60.7
48
Quality of Victory
65
20
Momentum Score
85
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
62%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
3
Body
2
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance3
2Clinch3
3Ground0
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/40 fights
Chin rating based on
11/22 fights
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Rockhold
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
BlachowiczRockhold
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedRockhold
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (43% of attacks) — Rockhold absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Rockhold targets the head (33% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Rockhold
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Rockhold · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Rockhold · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R2
David BranchRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Michael BispingRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06