UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Featherweight
VS
57%
Murphy
43%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Lerone
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
17 – 1
5'9"73" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Gabriel
Gabriel Santos
"Mosquitinho"
12 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak29 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

This is a genuine toss-up — Murphy at 57% vs Santos at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Murphy throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Murphy
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
49.9
57.7
Performance Avg
41.0
36
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
71
Murphy
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
64%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
8
5
Body
8
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
30Distance17
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Murphy
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Murphy
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Murphy
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Murphy
Santos
Striking5.1 / 1.0Volume7.1 / 5.0Grappling1.6 / 5.2Wrestling1.1 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure5.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Murphy
Strike Zones
Santos
Murphy
Attacking
28HEAD5BODY2LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD8BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
8HEAD8BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD5BODY2LEGS35 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (80% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (40% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Murphy
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.1W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.8W5.0W5.2W4.6W5.1W6.8L2020-072023-032024-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0107.0L3.6L5.5W6.3W2023-032023-062024-092025-02
WinLossTrend

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

Santos · Last 4

W · Sub · R3
Jack JenkinsRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
YizhaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
David OnamaRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Lerone Murphy · Gabriel Santos
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