METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Las Vegas, USA
13 Jan 2024
Lightweight
VS
43%
Motta
57%
Nolan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:03
★ Official Result
Nikolas MottawinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:03
def. Tom Nolan · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nolan
→
Actual result
Motta wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Motta at 43% vs Nolan at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Motta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Motta's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MottaNolan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Motta
Nolan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
33
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Motta
Nolan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.4
63.6
49.0
Performance Avg
56.0
48
Quality of Victory
38
41
Momentum Score
100
Motta
Nolan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
5.3
3.7
Style: Volume
6.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
5
2
Body
5
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance11
0Clinch1
13Ground0
Motta
Nolan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Motta
Nolan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Motta
Nolan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
100
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Motta
Nolan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Motta
Nolan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
MottaNolan
Strike Zones
Motta
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedNolan
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Motta targets the head (90% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Nolan targets the head (42% of attacks) — Motta absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Motta
RND
Nolan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Motta · Last 5
L · KO · R2
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Tom NolanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
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L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresKO/TKO
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Nolan · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
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Charlie CampbellSubmission
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Viacheslav BorshchevDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesDecision
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W · KO · R1
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