UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Las Vegas, USA
13 Jan 2024
Lightweight
VS
42%
Motta
58%
Nolan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:03
Nikolas
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
15 – 6
5'9"70" reachOrthodox33 yrsStriker
CFR 47
Tom
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10 – 1
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak26 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nolan

This is a genuine toss-up — Motta at 42% vs Nolan at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Motta throws more volume but Nolan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Motta's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Motta
Nolan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
33
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Motta
Nolan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.4
65.0
49.0
Performance Avg
56.6
48
Quality of Victory
41
41
Momentum Score
100
Motta
Nolan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
5
2
Body
5
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance11
0Clinch1
13Ground0
Motta
Nolan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Motta
Nolan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Motta
Nolan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Motta
Nolan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Motta
Nolan
Striking7.7 / 4.1Volume3.7 / 5.6Grappling0.8 / 3.2Wrestling0.6 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure6.2 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Motta
Strike Zones
Nolan
Motta
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Nolan
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Motta targets the head (90% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Nolan targets the head (42% of attacks) — Motta absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Motta
RND
Nolan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Motta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0103.2L5.0W3.6L6.5W4.8W4.2L2022-022022-092023-062024-012024-112025-06
WinLossTrend

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.1L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1W2024-012024-052024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Motta · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Nazim SadykhovRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
MaheshateRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Tom NolanRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Trey Ogden
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming
Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Nikolas Motta · Tom Nolan
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