METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Lightweight
VS
27%
Maynard
73%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Gray MaynardwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nate Diaz · UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Maynard wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Risk flags
Maynard's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MaynardDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maynard
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Maynard
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
35.3
41.4
Performance Avg
53.4
28
Quality of Victory
50
60
Momentum Score
100
Maynard
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.5
Style: Pressure
7.0
8.5
Style: Volume
3.2
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
19
4
Body
3
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance22
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Maynard
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.3
0
Submission wins
10
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maynard
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
58
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Maynard
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Maynard
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
10
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maynard
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
2.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
MaynardDiaz
Strike Zones
Maynard
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maynard targets the head (69% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (79% of attacks) — Maynard absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maynard
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Maynard · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nik LentzKO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Teruto IshiharaDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Ryan HallDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Fernando BrunoDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexander YakovlevDecision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08