UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Salt Lake City, USA
6 Aug 2016
Featherweight
VS
74%
Swanson
26%
Kawajiri
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Cub
Cub Swanson
31 – 14
5'8"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 46
TK
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
36 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Swanson

Swanson is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Swanson
Kawajiri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
42+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Kawajiri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
16.1
48.8
Performance Avg
39.9
40
Quality of Victory
33
56
Momentum Score
55
Swanson
Kawajiri
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
3
4
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance2
2Clinch1
16Ground1
Swanson
Kawajiri
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Kawajiri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
6/47 fights
Swanson
Kawajiri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
55
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Swanson
Kawajiri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Swanson
Kawajiri
Striking6.2 / 1.0Volume5.2 / 6.3Grappling1.2 / 4.3Wrestling0.8 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure5.3 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Swanson
Strike Zones
Kawajiri
Swanson
Attacking
23HEAD4BODY3LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Kawajiri
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD4BODY3LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (77% of attacks) — Kawajiri absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Kawajiri targets the head (75% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Swanson
RND
Kawajiri
0/0R00/0

Swanson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.2W5.2W6.4W5.8W5.5W5.0W4.0L5.1L4.5W4.5W6.3W4.5W3.5L5.5L2.3L5.5L5.3W6.1W2.5L5.5W3.3L4.6W6.2L6.7W5.7W2011-112014-112018-042022-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Kawajiri · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W6.0L4.5W4.5W5.5L6.0L2014-012014-042015-062015-122016-022016-08
WinLossTrend

Swanson · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

Kawajiri · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Jason KnightRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04

News & Media

Cub Swanson · Tatsuya Kawajiri
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