UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Heavyweight
VS
59%
Tuivasa
41%
Hardy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:07
Tai
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15 – 10
6'2"75" reachSouthpaw33 yrs7-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 43
GH
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
7 – 5
Striker3-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'5"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tuivasa

This is a genuine toss-up — Tuivasa at 59% vs Hardy at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Hardy throws more volume but Tuivasa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Tuivasa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hardy has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tuivasa
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
75"
Reach
+80"
33+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tuivasa
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.2
29.7
50.4
Performance Avg
47.8
54
Quality of Victory
50
20
Momentum Score
76
Tuivasa
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
0
Body
0
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Tuivasa
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tuivasa
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/12 fights
Tuivasa
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
76
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Tuivasa
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tuivasa
Hardy
Striking9.6 / 8.4Volume1.9 / 2.9Grappling0.3 / 0.6Wrestling0.2 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.5 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.4
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Tuivasa
Strike Zones
Hardy
Tuivasa
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY6LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Hardy
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY6LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tuivasa targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the head (83% of attacks) — Tuivasa absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tuivasa
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tuivasa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L5.5L3.3L5.0W5.0W5.0W5.4W6.5W4.5L2.7L4.0L1.9L6.6L6.7L5.5L2017-112019-102022-022024-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.8L5.0W5.0W6.8L4.5W5.2W3.1L1.9L2.0L2019-012019-112020-122022-03
WinLossTrend

Tuivasa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Louie SutherlandRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Sub · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4
Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09

Hardy · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

News & Media

Tai Tuivasa · Greg Hardy
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