UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Boston, USA
18 Jan 2015
Lightweight
VS
52%
Case
48%
Perez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:54
JC
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
22 – 6
5'10"72" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
FP
Frankie Perez
10 – 4
Knockout Artist2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Case

This is a genuine toss-up — Case at 52% vs Perez at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Perez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Striking split: Case throws more volume but Perez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Case
Perez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Case
Perez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
17.0
49.1
Performance Avg
46.0
37
Quality of Victory
60
58
Momentum Score
22
Case
Perez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.5
35%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Case
Perez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Case
Perez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Case
Perez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
Case
Perez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Case
Perez
Striking3.8 / 10.0Volume5.3 / 0.5Grappling3.2 / 0.0Wrestling2.2 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Case
Strike Zones
Perez
Case
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Perez
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Case targets the head (75% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Perez targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Case absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Case
RND
Perez
0/0R00/0

Case · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W4.5W4.5W5.0L5.5L2014-092015-012015-062015-112016-032017-06
WinLossTrend

Perez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.0L5.0W5.6L5.5L2015-012015-082016-122017-07
WinLossTrend

Case · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Yan CabralRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R3
Frankie PerezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

Perez · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Chris WadeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Sam StoutRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
L · KO · R3
Johnny CaseRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Johnny Case · Frankie Perez
← Back to fights