UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
49%
Miller
51%
Hardy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Juliana
Juliana Miller
"Killer"
5 – 4
5'7"66" reachOrthodox30 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 40
Veronica
Veronica Hardy
10 – 5
Well-Rounded30 yrsSouthpaw64" reach5'4"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hardy

This is a genuine toss-up — Miller at 49% vs Hardy at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Miller throws more volume but Hardy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Hardy has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miller
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
66"+
Reach
64"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Miller
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.9
41.4
38.5
Performance Avg
38.5
38
Quality of Victory
31
28
Momentum Score
55
Miller
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
6
2
Body
9
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
1Distance7
2Clinch0
0Ground13
Miller
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Miller
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
55
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Miller
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Hardy
Striking5.8 / 1.0Volume4.8 / 7.4Grappling1.2 / 3.5Wrestling0.8 / 2.5Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.7 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Miller
Strike Zones
Hardy
Miller
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD9BODY5LEGS20 absorbed
Hardy
Attacking
6HEAD9BODY5LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the body (67% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the body (45% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5W5.8L3.2L4.9W7.2L2022-082023-032023-082025-052026-02
WinLossTrend

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.0L5.9L4.0L5.3W5.5L4.7W5.2W5.1W6.3L4.5W2016-092019-082023-122025-10
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Carli JudiceRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivana PetrovicRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Luana SantosRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Veronica HardyRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · KO · R3
Brogan WalkerRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08

Hardy · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Brogan WalkerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Juliana MillerRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Juliana Miller · Veronica Hardy
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