UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Barao
53%
Gagnon
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:53
RB
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
34 – 9
5'6"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
MG
Mitch Gagnon
12 – 5
Submission Hunter3-fight slide41 yrsSouthpaw65" reach5'5"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gagnon

This is a genuine toss-up — Barao at 47% vs Gagnon at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Striking split: Barao throws more volume but Gagnon connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barao
Gagnon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
65"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barao
Gagnon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
17.4
59.4
Performance Avg
48.0
64
Quality of Victory
47
0
Momentum Score
38
Barao
Gagnon
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
38%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
6
Body
4
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance6
7Clinch5
0Ground0
Barao
Gagnon
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barao
Gagnon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
72
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
8/17 fights
Barao
Gagnon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
38
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Barao
Gagnon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barao
Gagnon
Striking3.3 / 1.0Volume4.6 / 3.0Grappling3.7 / 6.6Wrestling2.6 / 4.6Submission3.3 / 7.5Pressure5.5 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Barao
Strike Zones
Gagnon
Barao
Attacking
9HEAD6BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Gagnon
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD6BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (53% of attacks) — Gagnon absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Gagnon targets the head (36% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 36% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barao
RND
Gagnon
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Barao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.1W5.0W4.1L5.5W3.5L6.0L4.5W6.5L5.8L5.5L2.8L5.7L2011-052013-092016-052019-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Gagnon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.0L5.5L5.5L2012-072013-092014-102016-122019-05
WinLossTrend

Barao · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07

Gagnon · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cole SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Matthew LopezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Renan BaraoRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
W · Sub · R1
Roman SalazarRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tim GormanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04

News & Media

Renan Barao · Mitch Gagnon
← Back to fights