METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Barao
53%
Gagnon
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:53
★ Official Result
Renan BaraowinsSubmissionR3 · 3:53
def. Mitch Gagnon · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gagnon
→
Actual result
Barao wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Barao at 47% vs Gagnon at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaraoGagnon
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barao
Gagnon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
65"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barao
Gagnon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
17.4
59.4
Performance Avg
48.0
64
Quality of Victory
47
0
Momentum Score
38
Barao
Gagnon
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
5.5
Style: Pressure
6.8
4.6
Style: Volume
3.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
6
Body
4
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance6
7Clinch5
0Ground0
Barao
Gagnon
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
6.6
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
7.5
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barao
Gagnon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
72
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
8/17 fights
Barao
Gagnon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
38
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Barao
Gagnon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Gagnon
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
BaraoGagnon
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedGagnon
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (53% of attacks) — Gagnon absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Gagnon targets the head (36% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Gagnon
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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Gagnon · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cole SmithDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Matthew LopezDecision
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W · Sub · R1
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W · Dec · R3
Tim GormanDecision
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