UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2017
Heavyweight
VS
41%
Werdum
59%
Harris
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:05
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
6'4"77" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
WH
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
13 – 10
Knockout Artist3-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw77" reach6'5"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Harris

This is a genuine toss-up — Werdum at 41% vs Harris at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Harris throws more volume but Werdum connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Werdum's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Harris has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Werdum
Harris
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
77"
48
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Werdum
Harris
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
29.6
57.8
Performance Avg
51.0
52
Quality of Victory
58
72
Momentum Score
65
Werdum
Harris
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Werdum
Harris
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Werdum
Harris
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/33 fights
Chin rating based on
16/23 fights
Werdum
Harris
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
65
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Werdum
Harris
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Werdum
Harris
Striking4.7 / 10.0Volume4.0 / 0.8Grappling3.5 / 0.0Wrestling2.4 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Werdum
RND
Harris
0/0R00/0

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Harris · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.5L2.7L2.8L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.0L5.2W5.5W5.0W2.1L4.0L1.9L2013-112016-102017-112020-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

Harris · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Alistair OvereemRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05

News & Media

Fabricio Werdum · Walt Harris
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