METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
56%
Penne
44%
Reed
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Elise ReedwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jessica Penne · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Penne
→
Actual result
Reed wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Penne at 56% vs Reed at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Penne's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reed has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PenneReed
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Penne
Reed
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'3"
67"+
Reach
63"
43
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penne
Reed
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
28.5
34.1
Performance Avg
31.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
63
Momentum Score
45
Penne
Reed
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
1.2
6.0
Style: Volume
8.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
53
4
Body
8
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
16Distance66
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Penne
Reed
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penne
Reed
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/23 fights
Chin rating based on
10/13 fights
Penne
Reed
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Penne
Reed
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Penne
Reed
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
PenneReed
Strike Zones
Penne
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
67 absorbedReed
Attacking
67 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Penne targets the head (71% of attacks) — Reed absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Reed targets the head (79% of attacks) — Penne absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Penne
RND
Reed
0/0R00/0
Penne · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Elise ReedDecision
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Emily DucoteDecision
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W · Sub · R1
Karolina KowalkiewiczSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
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Reed · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Shanelle DyerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08
L · KO · R2
Denise GomesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jessica PenneDecision
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L · Sub · R2
Loopy GodinezSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
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