UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
54%
Penne
46%
Reed
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jessica
Jessica Penne
14 – 9
5'5"67" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 36
Elise
Elise Reed
8 – 5
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'3"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Penne

This is a genuine toss-up — Penne at 54% vs Reed at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Reed has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Penne's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Reed has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Penne
Reed
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'3"
67"+
Reach
63"
43
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penne
Reed
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
30.3
34.1
Performance Avg
32.8
35
Quality of Victory
25
63
Momentum Score
45
Penne
Reed
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
32%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
53
4
Body
8
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
16Distance66
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Penne
Reed
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penne
Reed
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/23 fights
Chin rating based on
9/13 fights
Penne
Reed
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Penne
Reed
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penne
Reed
Striking0.7 / 0.9Volume6.0 / 8.9Grappling4.3 / 2.4Wrestling3.0 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Penne
Strike Zones
Reed
Penne
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
53HEAD8BODY6LEGS67 absorbed
Reed
Attacking
53HEAD8BODY6LEGS67 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penne targets the head (71% of attacks) — Reed absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Reed targets the head (79% of attacks) — Penne absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penne
RND
Reed
0/0R00/0

Penne · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L3.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L3.4L5.5L2014-122017-042022-072024-10
WinLossTrend

Reed · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0101.5L5.0W4.7L4.5W3.7L4.5W3.2L4.6W4.0L2021-072022-092023-092025-05
WinLossTrend

Penne · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Elise ReedRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Tabatha RicciRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Emily DucoteRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5
Submission
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04

Reed · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Denise GomesRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jessica PenneRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Loopy GodinezRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Jinh Yu FreyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R2
Loma LookboonmeeRating 3.7
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

News & Media

Jessica Penne · Elise Reed
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