UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Boise, USA
14 Jul 2018
Welterweight
VS
60%
Northcutt
40%
Ottow
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:13
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
6'0"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
ZO
Zak Ottow
"The Barbarian"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Northcutt

Northcutt holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Ottow has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Northcutt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ottow has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Northcutt
Ottow
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Northcutt
Ottow
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
14.1
54.0
Performance Avg
40.2
40
Quality of Victory
34
89
Momentum Score
53
Northcutt
Ottow
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
1
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
8Clinch1
4Ground1
Northcutt
Ottow
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Northcutt
Ottow
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
32
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
8/24 fights
Northcutt
Ottow
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
53
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Northcutt
Ottow
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Northcutt
Ottow
Striking4.8 / 3.5Volume5.5 / 7.0Grappling2.5 / 1.8Wrestling1.8 / 1.3Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Northcutt
Strike Zones
Ottow
Northcutt
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Ottow
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Northcutt targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ottow absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Ottow targets the head (50% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Northcutt
RND
Ottow
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Ottow · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W2.3L5.0W2.8L4.5W1.5L2016-102017-062018-032018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Ottow · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Sage NorthcuttRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Li JingliangRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11

News & Media

Sage Northcutt · Zak Ottow
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