METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
93%
Smith
7%
Harrell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
★ Official Result
Jacobe SmithwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:01
def. Josiah Harrell · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smith is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 75 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithHarrell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Harrell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
68"
30
Age
+27
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Harrell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
81.3
6.2
73.9
Performance Avg
0.0
57
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Smith
Harrell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.6
2.8
64%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
1
9
Body
3
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
23Distance7
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Smith
Harrell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Harrell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/12 fights
Smith
Harrell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Smith
Harrell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Harrell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SmithHarrell
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHarrell
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (55% of attacks) — Harrell absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Harrell targets the body (43% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Harrell
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 3
W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 5.9Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Preston ParsonsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
Harrell · Last 1
L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02