UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
93%
Smith
7%
Harrell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
Jacobe
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
12 – 0
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw30 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 81
Josiah
Josiah Harrell
"The Muscle Hamster"
11 – 1
Well-Rounded27 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'7"
CFR 6

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

Smith is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 75 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.

Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Smith
Harrell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
68"
30
Age
+27
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Harrell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
81.3
6.2
73.9
Performance Avg
0.0
57
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Smith
Harrell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.6
2.8
64%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
1
9
Body
3
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
23Distance7
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Smith
Harrell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Harrell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/12 fights
Smith
Harrell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Smith
Harrell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smith
Harrell
Striking8.7 / 0.0Volume2.0 / 0.0Grappling2.7 / 0.0Wrestling1.9 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure10.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Smith
Strike Zones
Harrell
Smith
Attacking
18HEAD9BODY6LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Harrell
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD9BODY6LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (55% of attacks) — Harrell absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Harrell targets the body (43% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smith
RND
Harrell
0/0R00/0

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.9W5.0W2025-012025-062026-02
WinLossTrend

Smith · Last 3

W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Preston ParsonsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

Harrell · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02

News & Media

Jacobe Smith · Josiah Harrell
← Back to fights