UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jun 2023
Heavyweight
VS
54%
Arlovski
46%
Mayes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Arlovski
This is a genuine toss-up — Arlovski at 54% vs Mayes at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Arlovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mayes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Arlovski
Mayes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'6"
77"
Reach
+81"
47
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Mayes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
41.2
50.5
Performance Avg
37.8
47
Quality of Victory
39
94
Momentum Score
43
Arlovski
Mayes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
9 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
9
4
Body
3
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
10Distance15
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Arlovski
Mayes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arlovski
Mayes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
8
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Arlovski
Mayes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Arlovski
Mayes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
50%
9
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Arlovski
Mayes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
ArlovskiMayes
Strike Zones
Arlovski
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedMayes
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Mayes targets the head (53% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Arlovski
RND
Mayes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Arlovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Mayes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Arlovski · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
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L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5Decision
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