The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
25%
Ellenberger
75%
Thompson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:29
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
Stephen
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thompson

Thompson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Thompson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
46.3
45.7
Performance Avg
48.9
45
Quality of Victory
43
56
Momentum Score
45
Ellenberger
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
17
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance12
4Clinch1
0Ground7
Ellenberger
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Ellenberger
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
45
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Ellenberger
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Thompson
Striking6.0 / 6.1Volume3.4 / 5.1Grappling1.5 / 1.2Wrestling1.1 / 0.8Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Thompson
Ellenberger
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY1LEGS20 absorbed
Thompson
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY1LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (80% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Thompson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.1L6.0W5.5W5.7L6.6L6.0W4.8L5.2L7.2L2012-022015-072019-032023-122025-07
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Thompson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Jake Ellenberger · Stephen Thompson
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