UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Welterweight
VS
55%
Oliveira
45%
Medeiros
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:02
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
5'11"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
YM
Yancy Medeiros
15 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'10"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 55% vs Medeiros at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Medeiros throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Medeiros has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Oliveira
Medeiros
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Medeiros
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
24.4
46.5
Performance Avg
45.4
43
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
39
Oliveira
Medeiros
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
13
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance9
0Clinch4
1Ground3
Oliveira
Medeiros
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Medeiros
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Oliveira
Medeiros
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Oliveira
Medeiros
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
83%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Medeiros
Striking4.7 / 4.2Volume4.0 / 2.2Grappling3.0 / 4.4Wrestling2.1 / 3.1Submission2.7 / 5.0Pressure6.0 / 7.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Medeiros
Oliveira
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Medeiros
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (90% of attacks) — Medeiros absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Medeiros targets the head (81% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Medeiros
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Medeiros · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.0L1.9L5.5W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.2W5.5W1.5L2.8L6.0L5.5L2013-042015-062017-062020-022021-06
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Medeiros · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Alex Oliveira · Yancy Medeiros
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