UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Las Vegas, USA
2 Feb 2013
Lightweight
VS
65%
Edwards
35%
Vallie-Flagg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Vallie-Flagg has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edwards has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Vallie-Flagg throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
70"
49
Age
+48
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
10.3
47.6
Performance Avg
25.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
85
Momentum Score
28
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
27
5
Body
8
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
19Distance29
4Clinch12
0Ground0
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/64 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
28
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Vallie-Flagg
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
EdwardsVallie-Flagg
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedVallie-Flagg
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (65% of attacks) — Vallie-Flagg absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Vallie-Flagg targets the head (66% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 66% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Vallie-Flagg
0/0R00/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Vallie-Flagg · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Akbarh ArreolaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Sub · R3
Piotr HallmannRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
Upcoming
Yancy MedeirosUFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
Daron CruickshankRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Isaac Vallie-FlaggRating 5.5Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
Vallie-Flagg · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Takanori GomiRating 5.5Decision
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
L · Dec · R3
Elias SilverioRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
W · Dec · R3
Yves EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02