UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Heavyweight
VS
61%
Almeida
39%
Spivac
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:53
Jailton
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
22 – 5
6'3"79" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 71
Serghei
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
18 – 6
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almeida

Almeida holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Spivac has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Spivac throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Spivac has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Almeida
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
45.1
61.0
Performance Avg
52.0
53
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
33
Almeida
Spivac
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.8
64%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
14
1
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance2
4Clinch0
12Ground13
Almeida
Spivac
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almeida
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
8
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Almeida
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Almeida
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Almeida
Spivac
Striking5.2 / 4.5Volume2.5 / 3.9Grappling4.3 / 3.5Wrestling3.0 / 2.4Submission5.0 / 3.3Pressure8.3 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Almeida
Strike Zones
Spivac
Almeida
Attacking
20HEAD1BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Spivac
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD1BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (87% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Spivac targets the head (93% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Almeida
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0

Almeida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W6.1W5.7W3.7L5.8W5.5W6.8L5.8L2022-022023-012024-032025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Spivac · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0101.5L5.7W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W3.9L5.0W5.4W6.2W3.9L5.4W3.3L7.0L5.5W2019-052021-022022-082025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Almeida · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

Spivac · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09

News & Media

Jailton Almeida · Serghei Spivac
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