Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Inglewood, USA

18 Jan 2025

Heavyweight

62%

Almeida

38%

Spivac

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:53

Jailton Almeida

"Malhadinho"

22 – 5

6'3"79" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter

CFR 71

Serghei Spivac

"Polar Bear"

18 – 6

Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"

CFR 44

★ Official Result

Jailton AlmeidawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:53

def. Serghei Spivac · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Almeida

→

Actual result

Almeida wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Almeida holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Spivac has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Spivac has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

AlmeidaSpivac

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Almeida

Spivac

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"

Height

6'3"

79"+

Reach

78"

Age

+31

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Almeida

Spivac

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

70.9

44.1

61.0

Performance Avg

50.5

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Almeida

Spivac

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.2

/ 10

4.5

/ 10

8.3

Style: Pressure

6.3

2.5

Style: Volume

3.8

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

7Distance2

4Clinch0

12Ground13

Almeida

Spivac

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.3

/ 10

3.5

/ 10

3.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.4

5.0

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Almeida

Spivac

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/27 fights

Chin rating based on

16/24 fights

Almeida

Spivac

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

L · KO · R2

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

Almeida

Spivac

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

88%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Almeida

Spivac

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.2

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.5

4.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.5

3.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.4

5.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

8.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.3

2.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.8

Almeida

Strike Zones

Spivac

Almeida

Attacking

23 landed

Absorbing

15 absorbed

Spivac

Attacking

15 landed

Absorbing

23 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Almeida targets the head (87% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 87% of strikes there

🎯Spivac targets the head (93% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Almeida

RND

Spivac

0/0R00/0

Almeida · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Rizvan Kuniev

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Volkov

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · KO · R1

Serghei Spivac

KO/TKO

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R1

Alexandr Romanov

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

L · KO · R2

Curtis Blaydes

KO/TKO

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

Spivac · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Vitor Petrino

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08

W · Dec · R3

Ante Delija

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

L · KO · R1

Jailton Almeida

KO/TKO

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R1

Marcin Tybura

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08

News & Media

Jailton Almeida · Serghei Spivac

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