METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Heavyweight
VS
61%
Almeida
39%
Spivac
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:53
★ Official Result
Jailton AlmeidawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:53
def. Serghei Spivac · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Almeida
→
Actual result
Almeida wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Almeida holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Spivac has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Spivac throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Spivac has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlmeidaSpivac
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Almeida
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
35
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
45.1
61.0
Performance Avg
52.0
53
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
33
Almeida
Spivac
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.8
64%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
14
1
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance2
4Clinch0
12Ground13
Almeida
Spivac
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almeida
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
8
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Almeida
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Almeida
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Spivac
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
AlmeidaSpivac
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedSpivac
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (87% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Spivac targets the head (93% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09