UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
13 Feb 2021
Featherweight
VS
54%
Simon
46%
Kelleher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Simon
This is a genuine toss-up — Simon at 54% vs Kelleher at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Simon's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Simon
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
66"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Simon
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
40.8
48.0
Performance Avg
44.5
38
Quality of Victory
43
56
Momentum Score
61
Simon
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
1
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance3
2Clinch0
4Ground0
Simon
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Simon
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/29 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Simon
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
61
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Simon
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
63%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Simon
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
SimonKelleher
Strike Zones
Simon
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Simon targets the head (57% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (33% of attacks) — Simon absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Simon
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
Simon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Simon · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Cameron SmothermanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Javid BasharatRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01